MEXICO CITY, June 18 (Reuters) – Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador mentioned on Friday he expects that by the third quarter the Mexican financial system will attain pre-pandemic ranges, after gross home product contracted by some 8.5% final yr pushed by pandemic-related fallout.
The president’s religion in a quicker rebound is extra optimistic than the central financial institution’s newest forecasts.
“No doubt, by the third quarter of this yr we’ll already be (on the ranges) we have been at earlier than the pandemic,” Lopez Obrador informed a information convention.
Mexico’s financial system grew 24.8% in Could in contrast with the identical month final yr, as a restoration from a hunch made worse by the coronavirus pandemic gathered tempo, a preliminary estimate revealed by nationwide statistics company INEGI confirmed on Thursday. read more
If the preliminary estimate is confirmed, Could’s exercise was solely about 0.4% behind the extent reached in February 2020, the final full month earlier than pandemic restrictions started to hit the financial system, in line with an index compiled by INEGI.
However in line with Mexico’s central financial institution, provided that financial progress this yr can strategy 7% will the financial system recuperate to its pre-pandemic degree from the top of 2019, and never till the fourth quarter of this yr.
The financial institution added that if 2021 progress is available in nearer to six%, restoration to the pre-pandemic degree would seemingly be delayed till the second quarter of 2022 and even later.
Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos forecast Mexico’s GDP progress would agency to six.0% in 2021, “with danger skewed in direction of the next print.”
Ramos based mostly his forecast on the sturdy efficiency of the financial system in fourth quarter, further growth within the first quarter and expectations for a “gradual however regular progress on the COVID vaccination entrance and robust exterior demand for the rest of 2021.”
Reporting by Anthony Esposito; Modifying by Frank Jack Daniel
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