NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Barclays Analysis immediately launched the 66th version of the Fairness Gilt Research (EGS), a flagship annual publication. Combining market-leading macro evaluation with a novel multi-asset dataset spanning over 100 years, this 12 months’s report examines how markets and society could evolve after COVID-19.
In a chapter on financial and monetary coverage, economists and strategists discover the dangers of a disorderly unwinding of the extraordinary stimulus programmes put in place within the US and euro space to counter the consequences of the pandemic. Inflation spikes and elevated debt masses may check policy-makers’ credibility as they navigate the trade-offs between supporting progress and stopping economies from overheating. Regardless of these dangers, Barclays’ strategists anticipate an orderly unwind to be the more than likely final result.
In a chapter on debt sustainability, Barclays strategists think about whether or not the benign outcomes for the US and Europe may be repeated worldwide. They argue that debt masses finally matter, however extra in some nations than others. They see low-growth, high-rate rising market economies corresponding to Brazil, Turkey and Peru as particularly weak to credit score occasions over the subsequent decade.
Away from debt dynamics, Barclays analysts give attention to restrictions on mobility and the way the virus and its variants have impaired individuals’s capacity to maneuver throughout worldwide borders with out friction. A state of semi-permanent restrictions corresponding to testing necessities and vaccine passports may lead world mobility to contract, affecting rising economies disproportionately. Home tourism, however, may benefit.
The report additionally digs in to the new world of labor. As employers and staff shift to extra versatile fashions, Barclays specialists weigh the implications for actual property and retail. The report finds that demand for places of work may drop by as much as 20%, whereas the residential property market will probably be buoyed for years to come back.
Commenting on the launch of this key report, Jeff Meli, World Head of Analysis at Barclays stated:
“On this 12 months’s Fairness Gilt Research, Barclays specialists discover how the coronavirus disaster has reshaped the macro panorama, posing new dilemmas for policy-makers in developed and rising markets, as they stability the necessity to help progress whereas holding inflation in examine. We additionally have a look at how the pandemic has completely altered world mobility and workplace working.”
Notes to editors:
Since 1956 Barclays’ Fairness Gilt Research has offered uniquely wealthy information, evaluation and commentary on long-term asset returns within the UK and US. Information for the UK goes again to 1899, whereas the US information, offered by the Heart for Analysis in Safety Costs on the College of Chicago, runs from 1925.
Barclays is a British common financial institution. We’re diversified by enterprise, by several types of clients and shoppers, and by geography. Our companies embrace client banking and funds operations around the globe, in addition to a full-service company and funding financial institution.